Predictions of Internal Migration in Bangladesh: A Data-Driven Approach for Policymaking
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), BRAC University
Bangladesh conducts a nationwide census every 10 years which provides invaluable insights for policy makers. However, more frequent data-gathering is necessary if policy decisions are to respond to demographic changes caused by factors such as internal migration. Researchers at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) will use Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques — a method originally designed for poverty mapping — to predict internal migration patterns at the Upazila (sub-district) and Zilla (district) level. This approach will combine multiple types of data—household surveys, census records, satellite imagery, and mobile network data—to fill information gaps and predict where people are moving within Bangladesh. It will allow the team to produce high-quality estimates even for regions with limited direct data. The resulting data will identify migration trends and the factors driving them, allowing policymakers to prioritise infrastructure and welfare investments in areas with increasing migration, while targeting economic support programs to regions with declining migration.