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Quantifying the Impact of Heat on Non-Communicable Diseases: Productivity Loss and Its Consequences for Poverty

Jyotirmoy Saha

Bangladesh ranks second globally in exposure to elevated temperatures. Extreme heat exacerbates non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular conditions, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, hypertension, and mental health disorders, and significantly reduces labour productivity. Economic losses from heat-related illnesses are estimated at between 1.33–1.78 billion USD annually with projections indicating a potential 4.9% reduction in GDP by 2030. Jyotirmoy Saha at the World Bank, along with a team of researchers from BRAC, the University of Dhaka and Georgetown University, will quantify the impact of extreme heat on NCD prevalence, productivity loss, and poverty risk, focusing on vulnerable populations. They will utilise two rounds of nationally representative panel data, collected by the World Bank’s Health and Nutrition Global Practice, which integrates individual level health data, household economic conditions and high-resolution climate data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, employing machine learning techniques to enhance predictive analysis. Findings will guide the development of heat-resilient labour markets, health policies and economic safeguards and support Bangladesh’s National Adaptation Plan.

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