DEEP Dives | May 2026 | New evidence, insights and policy takeaways on extreme poverty

Welcome to the 4th edition of DEEP Dives, the research bulletin of the Data and Evidence to End Extreme Poverty Research programme. We’re excited to share with you what we’ve been reading over the last few months.

First up, we’re following the New Economies for Eradicating Poverty roadmap and the policy proposals and options being outlined beyond those that rely on economic growth (which has done the bulk of the work in lifting people out of extreme poverty to date). The roadmap policies currently fall under five pillars – including transforming economic systems, universal basic services and social protection.

The World Bank (supported by the DEEP programme) has updated the global poverty numbers, including to incorporate new survey data. This slightly increases the proportion of the population living in extreme poverty in 2024 to 10.4%. The extreme poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to return to pre-COVID levels in the 2025 figures. Our World in Data further hones in on hunger in Africa – alarmingly showing that one in five people in Africa are now undernourished.

Post-pandemic Trends in Extreme Poverty around the World looks in more detail at how poverty rates may have recovered, or not, between 2021 and 2024. According to the team’s projections, three out of four countries are expected to have experienced a decline in poverty during that period. These results are driven primarily by economic growth, which was positive for 81% of countries in 2024. Meanwhile, fragile and conflict-affected countries fared the worst, with only 8 of 23 seeing reductions in poverty rates over that time. Forecasting from 2025 onwards, in 2025, 80% of countries are projected to see a decline in poverty, with economic growth projected to be positive for 9 of the 10 countries with the highest number of people living in poverty.

And, a couple of thought-provoking articles around framing poverty in contexts of risk and uncertainty. What Will it Mean to End Poverty?  argues that, given the dynamic nature of poverty, with people living in poverty at certain times of the year and during certain seasons, we cannot eliminate poverty until deprivations are removed for all people at all times of the year. On Risk-based Poverty Traps (open-access version available here) challenges our thinking around poverty traps – they are not just due to initial, self-reinforcing poverty but also the consequence of uninsured exposure to catastrophic risk.

And a major source of shocks globally – the climate. Climate Shocks and the Poor: A Review of the Literature  (older working paper version here) synthesises global evidence showing that poor populations are both more exposed to, and more severely affected by, climate shocks. Income and human capital losses tend to be concentrated among the poor. The authors note specifically how the findings highlight the potential long-term risk of climate-change-induced poverty traps and the need for targeted interventions to protect poor people from the adverse effects of climate shocks.

Finally, a couple of studies highlighting the importance of understanding poverty dynamics. Structural Change, Internal Migration, and Welfare: A Micro‐panel Data Evidence from Tanzania observes that nearly twice as many people fell into poverty as escaped from it between 2015 and 2021. Education (particularly secondary or higher) is important to enable escapes from poverty and, particularly, the shift from agriculture to services. The Middle Class and Vulnerability to Income Poverty in the Philippines highlights that poverty measures underestimate populations at risk of poverty – with vulnerability affecting 30% of households (where vulnerability is understood as living below the upper-middle income country poverty threshold of $8.30 a day), significantly higher than the headline statistic of 11% living in extreme poverty.

And – before you go, do check out our recently published evidence and gap maps, which, for the first time, map what existing research can tell us about poverty within individual countries – they’re launched for Tanzania and Madagascar and with Ethiopia coming soon.