Findings from the third round of a longitudinal study tracking climate resilience in Ethiopia

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Climate change is a growing threat to global food security and is already having profound effects on countries like Ethiopia which are highly dependent on traditional agriculture. In the last forty-five years Ethiopia has faced at least ten major droughts, alongside rising average temperatures of 0.37°C per decade – conditions which are drastically altering rural livelihoods.

DEEP consortium researchers from the University of Copenhagen Development Economics Research Group (UCPH-DERG) are collaborating with Ethiopia’s Policy Studies Institute (PSI) and Oxford Policy Management (OPM)’s Ethiopia team on a project which aims to enhance understanding of the impacts of climate change on rural households and inform evidence-based strategies for strengthening resilience. The project aims to provide critical evidence for policymaking by documenting how households adapt to climate shocks over time and examining the role of three flagship government programmes: the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), the Sustainable Land Management Project (SLMP), and the Agricultural Growth Programme (AGP) on building resilience. These programmes focus on improving agricultural productivity, conserving natural resources, and smoothing household consumption.

The project conducted three survey rounds in 2021, 2023, and 2025, covering a balanced panel of 1,964 households across 40 woredas. Each round was designed to identify and evaluate the drivers of resilience to climate change in rural Ethiopia.

Validation workshop

On Thursday 02 October 2025, a validation workshop took place in Addis Ababa at the Haile Grand Hotel, where a survey report based on the third round of panel data was presented. Unlike the previous two survey rounds, the 2025 survey additionally examined intra-household decision-making patterns, gender-disaggregated time use, and migration. The workshop brought together policymakers, researchers, and development practitioners to review and discuss the survey results. The workshop’s purpose was to encourage dialogue, gather observations, and stimulate further analysis.

Key findings presented at the meeting:

Drought exposure was found to have increased from 24% in 2021 to 28% in 2023, with the Somali region experiencing near-universal exposure (98%). Households reported resorting to potentially damaging coping mechanisms: limiting consumption (66-72% of drought affected households) and livestock sales (45-57%), with men more likely to turn to income generation through migration and additional labour while women relied on food rationing and social networks.

The government programmes showed mixed results depending on the quality of implementation, but made significant contributions in certain areas including the development of irrigation facilities, nursery sites, and market infrastructure; restoring degraded and eroded lands and supporting the construction of rural infrastructure.

Specifically, the areas covered by the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), showed the highest participation in non-farm activities but generated the lowest returns, indicating engagement in necessity-driven rather than opportunity-based enterprises. Agricultural Growth Programme (AGP) areas maintained some productivity advantages even after the program concluded. Sustainable Land Management Project (SLMP) areas demonstrated moderate but sustained improvements.

The survey data shows persistent gender inequalities. Despite land certification expanding from 67% to 74% of households, male control over land ownership was found to have increased from 27% to 45%, indicating that formal improvements may not translate into gender equity. Women are working much longer hours than men yet remain consistently underrepresented in agricultural decision-making and extension access. Social norms were found to constitute the primary barrier to women’s agricultural participation, affecting 14% of households in AGP areas and 31% of households in PSNP areas, demonstrating that technical interventions alone are insufficient without addressing structural inequalities

Data collected this year (2025) showed that 30% of households had adopted none of the three key modern technologies (improved seeds, fertilizer and agrochemicals), representing an increase from 22% in 2021. Extension service access (access to rural advisory services) had declined significantly, from 1,186 to 926 households, particularly following AGP’s conclusion in 2022.

Next steps

Now the data collection stage of the project is over, the findings will be used to create evidence that can inform both academic understanding and policy design for climate-resilient rural development.

The survey data will feed into three academic papers coming out early next year. These will cover:

• Intra-household inequality and climate change dynamics
• Poverty trajectories through the integration of satellite and survey data
• An impact evaluation of the three government flagship programs: PSNP, SLMP and AGP

Early recommendations

While more research is needed to draw conclusions from the work, key themes are already emerging. Policy recommendations are likely to include integrating gender into climate programming to address the social norms which are limiting women’s participation in adaptation activities and holding back the success of technical interventions. Moreover, it is recommended that government programmes build on success to go beyond service delivery to address systemic constraints to agricultural transformation to build capacity to create lasting change.