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Since the early 1990s, Mozambique experienced a sustained economic growth. As a result, the country reduced both the consumption and multidimensional poverty between 1996/97 and 2014/15. Starting during the second half of 2015, the poverty reduction trend reversed due to a deep economic crisis. It hit the country, due to multiple factors, including a debt crisis, a series of weather shocks, violent attacks in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, and the Covid-19.

Projects in the country

Project 1: Poverty and vulnerability in Mozambique: An analysis of dynamics and correlates in light of the Covid-19 crisis using synthetic panels

A synthetic panel data approach to study poverty and vulnerablity transitions pre-Covid-19 and assess likely impacts of Covid-19 on poverty dynamics in Mozambique.

Project 2: Locating extreme poverty in Urban East Africa using advanced statistical methods

Exploring the extent to which information extracted from satellite images can help predict the distribution of extreme urban poverty in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Mozambique.

Project 3: What works to reduce extreme poverty?

A selective review of what works to reduce extreme poverty in five countries, undertaken as part of DEEP’s inception phase.

Project 4: Long term trends in poverty incidence and dynamics in Mozambique

This study seeks to verify the results and the expectations from the synthetic panel study completed under our programme in 2021-22 and on further underpinning the understanding of the longer-term trends in poverty incidence and the poverty dynamics inMozambique. The availability of the new 2019/20 and 2022 nationally representative household budget survey data provides unique possibilities to study what has changed and what remains the same in light of Mozambique’s significantly changed economic circumstances. What has been the likely impact of Covid-19 on extreme poverty in the shorter and longer term?

Project 4: Understanding the relationship between city size and poverty using small area estaimation in Mozambique

Earlier work by DEEP helped to locate extreme poverty in urban East Africa using satellite images. Interesting results emerged using available geo-spatial data derived from satellite images to predict poverty across three large urban areas, including Maputo-Matola. By focusing on characteristics at the sub-neighbourhood level, our work highlighted covariates of poverty found in the data and identified pockets of extreme poverty. There seems to be an inverse spatial relationship between places included in household surveys and the areas in which the bottom quintile of the welfare distribution reside. This project builds on and extends this small area estimation work and explores the relationship between city size and poverty using satellite imagery. Existing understanding is based on traditional survey based data and these are not well placed to shed light on the extent of poverty at the individual town and city level.  Moreover, we are investigating existing household surveys and their ability to capture the bottom tail of the welfare distribution.

Poverty Trends in Mozambique

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