Reversion, sustainability, or convergence: Assessing the long-run impacts of social assistance on consumption and poverty in Bangladesh

A substantial body of evidence shows that social assistance, specifically receipt transfers, has positive impacts on household consumption. Less is known on whether these beneficial impacts are enhanced through the inclusion of cash+ or complementary programming; whether these beneficial impacts persist after the intervention ends; and whether the magnitudes of these impacts are sufficient to lift social assistance clients permanently out of poverty.

We bring new evidence to these topics, assessing the long-term (10-year) impact of the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI), a randomised control trial fielded in two poor regions of rural Bangladesh between 2012 and 2014. We find the following: our cash+ treatment arm (cash transfers combined with nutrition Behaviour Communication Change activities (Cash+BCC) had large, sustained impacts on consumption and on poverty. In the Cash+BCC treatment arm, 76.2% of poor households at baseline had escaped poverty by 2022.

Other treatment arms (cash only, food only) maintained the gains in consumption that they had obtained during the intervention, but – unlike the Cash+BCC group – the control group converged to their consumption and poverty levels post-programme.

Available at: https://doi.org/10.55158/DEEPWP29