The importance of climate change variables and the effect of temperature variations on poverty in Tanzania: A spatial analysis

Tanzania is highly vulnerable to climate change and this vulnerability is increasing due to its low level of preparedness to cope with the effects of climate change and the projected increase in global warming. Country-level literature applying small area analysis of climate change and poverty is scant. Applying exploratory descriptive analysis and machine learning models to National Panel Surveys (NPS) comprising 10,832 households in 3,285 wards and related climate change data, this paper identifies the climate change variables which are most important in affecting poverty at the national and regional levels.

It also examines the effect of temperature variability on poverty across different geographical locations. The results show that temperature variation scores the highest in terms of its effect on poverty, followed by humidity, soil moisture, and lastly precipitation.

Available at: https://doi.org/10.55158/DEEPCFWP8